❝P <0.05 has been used countless times, but do you know how the P value is calculated? What is it?
Examples and vernacular texts in this article introduce the "P value" in statistics .
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P value VS probability
P value is not a probability, but probability and P value are closely related.
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Target event "P value" = "Probability of target event + equal probability of target event + probability of event smaller than the probability of target event"
Target event "probability" = "the number of possible occurrences of the target event / the number of all possible outcomes"
2 coin toss instances to calculate the probability
The two coin toss results "both heads (HH) probability" as shown in the figure above, is the number of times the two results are heads/all possible results = 0.25. The
two coin toss results "both are negative (TT) probability" " As shown in the figure above, the probability is also 0.25.
The result of two coin flips is the " probability of one positive and negative (TH, HT)" as shown in the figure above, and the probability is 0.5.
2 coin toss instances to calculate P value
The result of two coin tosses is "P value with heads (HH)" as shown in the figure above, "P value = 0.25 (probability of HH occurrence) + 0.25 (probability of HH and other possible events TT) + 0 (events with a smaller probability of occurrence than HH are not Exist, the probability is 0)” = 0.5.
The P value of 0.5 is greater than the significance test value of 0.05, indicating that the event where the two coin toss results are heads (HH) is "not a rare event, and a small probability event did not occur."
Reference
❝https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1iJ411R7zf?p=20
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