Some people say that the threshold for programmers is gradually disappearing, because the number of graduates of computer-related majors is increasing year by year; the number of students coming out of IT training classes is increasing year by year; various programming courses on the Internet are also helping countless people zero Fundamental Transformation Software Development ...
The salary of programmers, which is often 20,000 to 30,000, 30,000 to 50,000 yuan, is much higher than that of most technical positions in other industries, and it seems to be full of bubbles.
In the future, there will be more and more programmers, and the supply will exceed demand. It will definitely be the price of cabbage, and it is said that this is a general economic law.
When we discuss the relationship between supply and demand, we often need a basic condition: the product business must be standard. Our generation is living in the transition stage from the " Industrial Age " to the "Information Intelligence Age". Therefore, we often use the experience of the industrial age to speculate on the trend of the assumed information age, which is itself outdated.
Below, let's take a look at what the income of programmers may look like in the next ten years from multiple perspectives.
①Industry trends
In one to two years, whether your job has been promoted or not, whether your salary can be increased, personal efforts play a big role. And five, eight, ten years or more, the effect of the trend will be far greater than the individual efforts, or even overwhelm individual efforts.
When you get into the right channel, even if you don't exert much effort, the turbulent current will push you forward.
That's the power of trends.
So, what's the trend now? Which industries are the right river course?
Look at a picture first:
The above picture is a graph of the industry growth rate in the United States over the past 200 years, describing the changing trends of several major industries, from the steamship in 1820 to the Internet in 1995. The domestic industry development trend is similar to that of the United States , but it is slightly behind by a few years. The growth rate of each industry has gone through stages of growth, peaking, and slow decline.
The accelerated development of the Internet in China began in about 1997. The earliest was the PC Internet, then the mobile Internet , now Internet+, and then the Internet of Things, smart cities, smart transportation, and artificial intelligence. The trend has never changed. In the future, it will be generalized and deepened at the same time. In ten or eight years, the trend will be better!
As long as this positive trend remains unchanged, the income of practitioners in related fields will not decline.
20 years from now, programmer salaries will be higher
Now is the era of information intelligence, production methods and processes are changing and accelerating, product manufacturing cycles are shortening, ideas on various crowdfunding websites are emerging one after another, the personalized customization market is expanding, and the supply chain is changing with consumers as the center. More produced items are no longer tangible objects, these items only need to be produced once, and the cost of replication expansion is 0, such as: a good APP or game .
Even our money is almost turned into a number in the payment software.
At this time, the production methods of companies in the era of relevant information intelligence are also greatly changing: all need to embrace changes and all need innovation.
When most of the work in an industry is about innovation, the more people that come in, it will only lead to faster changes, more prosperity for the industry, rushing to new heights, rushing out of the earth to conquer the universe (don't forget the mission of SpaceX : colonize humans on Mars ). The relationship between supply and demand has become naturally balanced due to the extreme development of information, and a large number of creative ideas will only rapidly allocate people to more reasonable directions and climb to new and unimaginable peaks.
Therefore, in the era of information intelligence, programmers are at the center of the executive layer of this industry and era, and the salary will only get higher and higher. If it is a treasure, it will be unimaginably high.
Some time ago, Boss Ma paid the Glory of Kings team a salary of 100 months. Although the rumor has been refuted , we cannot underestimate the strength of the Glory of Kings team.
3 National strategic plan
So, in the next ten years or more, will this trend change? Let's take a look at the country's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016 ~ 2020).
Looking at the picture above, the 13th Five-Year Plan corresponds to the period from 2016 to 2020. The general direction is to accelerate the expansion of strategic emerging industries and create a new engine for economic and social development.
Among the strategic emerging industries , the most important ones are the information technology industry and the network economy. See below:
What does this mean? Information technology and network economy are the focus of national strategic planning, and the national level will provide various policies, funds and resources to support its rapid and extensive development. Internet+, big data, and artificial intelligence will be the top priorities.
Knock on the blackboard and focus: developers will have better development when they are close to big data and artificial intelligence.
We can conclude that in the next ten years, software, Internet, data, intelligence and other related fields will still be the general trend of the times, and the average income of programmers who support the development of these fields will still be much higher than other industries.
Of course, if the programmer is doing manual labor, copy-pasting and writing glue code all day. Looking forward to my salary getting better and better and not being eliminated by the times, that is also a pipe dream.
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