In 1965, Gordon Moore said that by 1975, it could be 65,000 such parts in high density on a single chip, made of highly complex integrated circuits. The integrated circuit was built to 6 years, Moore's prediction sounds like science fiction, but its core prediction proved to be correct. despite its central forecast specifically for each chip can be integrated parts can be doubled almost every year, and today this period of technological progress closer to 18 months, but "Moore's Law" is still valid.
Moore's prediction not only for himself, but also for society as a whole are far-reaching. improve labor productivity and economic growth promoted, thanks to such technological innovation. as technology Like experts, economists and policy makers are also discussing the future of Moore's Law.
Intel's current CEO Craig Barrett is one of Moore's Law believer, convinced that this law will set up over the next many years. However, skeptics point out that the transistor size is very small, it can no longer work properly.
Today, the size of the integrated circuit of each component has been less than 1 micron, or less than 1/100 of the diameter of a human hair, so that when the transistor is turned off, current still pass. This will not only lead to excessive power chip, generating excess heat, and has begun to endanger the basic binary arithmetic mechanism of computer circuitry Moore himself said:. "every time I see the future chip after the second or third generation, we would like to see a fundamental obstacle" However, if Moore's Law does come to an end, what will be the economic impact?
MIT Sloan School of Management professor Eric 布莱恩约福森 pointed out that enterprise use of information technology has made advances take several years. "Moore's Law is assumed that fail tomorrow, we can still use the existing technological achievements in the 5 to improve labor productivity in 10 years. "he said. Gordon and Betty Caltech professor Carver Mead Fund honor that, even if not to reduce the volume of workers of the tube. in the prior art as well as on the basis of 50 years room for innovation.