The "release of water" by global central banks will bring liquidity to crypto assets.
Finishing | Wang Ye Operations | Gai Yao Edit | Hao Fangzhou
Produced | Odaily Planet Daily (ID: o-daily)
On April 10th, the Odaily Planet Daily hosted the first online summit forum "Vitality" Cloud Summit , and Xu Kun, chief strategy officer of OKEx, delivered a speech on "The Full Cycle and Globalization of the Crypto Ecology".
When analyzing the global trend of the encryption ecosystem, Xu Kun said that DeFi began to emerge in 2020, mainly in two aspects: on the one hand, the number of DeFi projects increased, according to incomplete statistics, there are 250 projects that provide services for the DeFi system; on the other hand, DeFi's lock-up value has repeatedly reached new highs, reaching US $ 870 million at the end of 2019, a nearly double increase from the beginning of the year. In 2020, the momentum continued, surpassing US $ 1.2 billion. Recently, with the decline of ETH price, it has dropped back to around US $ 650 million.
In addition, Xu Kun also said that DeFi is currently the most prosperous in the Ethereum ecosystem. The head exchanges are all laid out in the public chain ecosystem. The OKChain testnet was launched in early February.
When talking about the future trend of crypto assets, Xu Kun said that there are many black swan events this year, and global financial markets have encountered a liquidity crisis that has been rare for a hundred years, and crypto assets cannot escape the spread of the liquidity crisis. But Xu Kun said that he is still optimistic about the future trend of crypto assets, because the volume of crypto assets is still very small. Once liquidity comes in, there is still much room for crypto assets to rise. When talking about the impact of "halving" on the cryptocurrency market, Xu Kun said that "halving" is only a stimulus for the currency circle, and it only takes a lot of curves to meet a central axis. This market is stimulating, but she personally prefers to think that the bull market will come after halving.
Finally, Xu Kun said that the global central bank's "release of water" due to the epidemic will bring some liquidity benefits to crypto assets, especially after the US began to implement "zero interest rates" this year. Xu Kun believes that in the future, the world will be in a state of low interest rate or even zero interest rate for a long time. Compared with other financial assets, Bitcoin should be a relatively speculative investment target in a relatively periodic period, so crypto assets in the future There is still much room for improvement.
The following is the full text of Xu Kun's speech, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:
Hello everyone, I am Xu Kun from OKEx. I am very happy to participate in the Cloud Summit of Planet Daily. Some of the thoughts I bring to you today are mainly about the thinking of the crypto asset ecosystem. I will start from "full cycle" and "global "Two dimensions" to share with everyone.
I prepared a simple PPT today, which shared my thoughts on the cryptocurrency market in the past year. Today's theme is the full cycle and globalization of the crypto ecology. Below I will mainly divide three parts to do some thinking and outlook with you.
The first part is about the global trend of the crypto ecology. The second part is about the horizontal and vertical tactical thinking of "full cycle" and "globalization", which also involves some of our strategic positioning of OKEx this year. The third part is about the future of our encryption market. Some prospects and reflections, I hope to bring you some guiding opinions.
Global trends in the crypto ecosystem
We can actually review the global trends of the crypto ecosystem through some data.
First, from the beginning of 2018, the market share of bitcoin has rebounded from 40% to 65% at the beginning of this year, and the trading volume of the top ten currencies has exceeded 85%. Therefore, a global trend in the crypto ecosystem is to focus liquidity on core assets, and at the same time provide a certain foundation for the development of the derivatives market, in order to support major exchanges to enter the derivatives trading market in 2020.
So many people say that 2020 is the first year of derivatives development, and OKEx has developed derivatives trading for nearly seven years.
We can also see from the global trend that some countries have also opened up restrictions on encrypted assets this year.
I explain this through two graphs. On the left is the distribution map of Bitcoin restrictions in the global market in January 2018. At that time, some countries were more cautious about Bitcoin, and some countries even strictly prohibited any bit Currency related activities. Take another look at the picture on the right. By February and March of this year, more than 30 countries have opened restrictions on the Bitcoin market. I think this is more conducive to the globalization of crypto assets represented by Bitcoin.
In addition, I have recently done a lot of research on ecology, especially the research on the ecology of Ethereum, because currently the top two crypto assets are led by Bitcoin and Ethereum is the second, whether it is on-chain data, ecological development and community In terms of activity, I think the value of Ethereum is still seriously underestimated.
The trends mentioned below are DeFi and exchange public chains.
2019 is defined as the "DeFi first year", and many of Ethereum ’s ecosystems are still worthy of our attention. MakerDAO, Uniswap, and other platforms that do decentralized lending. The capacity of such platforms has remained from last year to now. Greatly improved.
Compared with 2019, the overall DeFi market data in 2020 has tripled. Although there has been a slight drop in the recent period, the amount of funds accepted by the overall market is still very large, so I highly recommend that you study the field of DeFi.
Next, let's talk about the development trend of the crypto ecology in the exchange field.
We characterize the development of the entire exchange as three eras. In the 1.0 era, it was actually early Yuanbao, Jucoin, OKEx, and Huobi (at that time, Huobi and OKEx did not have spot transactions on small currencies). In 2017, it entered the 2.0 era, and a number of new exchanges led by Binance ran out of the market. In the 3.0 era, the pattern of head exchanges has been fixed.
For OKEx, we are currently a full line of business, including users to think about how to better serve users and meet their diverse business needs.
At this stage, there are still some second-tier exchanges running out, but at this stage the competition of second-tier exchanges is more intense than ever. Everyone can also see that some small exchanges have thundered this year, and even the once brilliant exchanges have experienced similar thunders this year. This can fully prove the operational risks faced by second-tier exchanges and their commitments. The market pressure is still great.
OKEx's full cycle and global strategy
The second part wants to share with you the thinking about OKEx's own development-full cycle and globalization strategy.
In the vertical direction, we serve every user, taking the user's full life cycle as the main line of business. In terms of the transaction depth of the business, including the ecological breadth of the encrypted assets, we focus on buying, trading, and financial management of encrypted assets. Life cycle service line to serve every user well.
In the horizontal direction, we also need to do globalization layout. OKEx made the strategic positioning of the globalization layout last year, and we have to truly go global. "True globalization" means that your products must be localized in various countries, first of all, the products must serve localized users.
At the tactical level, we have also continued to polish our products to localize the design of OKEx products in various national markets, provide in-depth service to users, and actively promote the development of local communities.
Summarizing a few words, it is intensive cultivation technology, fine product, in-depth community, business vertical, user globalization and team internationalization. Therefore, for OKEx, 2020 is also a very important step for the internationalization of our team.
Just now I mentioned that the four core product lines of OKEx are completely serving the needs of users throughout their life cycle. The four core product lines are buy crypto, trade, tools, and academy. These four core product lines can fully form a closed-loop ecosystem of users 'demand for encrypted assets, thus satisfying users' one-stop service from buying coins and trading to value-added.
Let me briefly talk about the logic of these four core product lines. The first core product line is "buy coins". "Buy coins" helps users around the world enter the world of encrypted assets conveniently. The second largest core product line is "transactions". OKEx should be the most abundant product type among all exchanges, and it is also the most comprehensive trading platform. It covers fiat currency transactions, currency currency transactions, leveraged transactions and delivery contracts. Derivative options, and the contract is OKEx's seven-year trading product line. We currently support many large and small currency contract transactions, totaling about 12 currencies.
In addition, we have launched new contract products such as forward contracts and reverse contracts. On delivery contracts, we have also launched contract products of different time periods such as the week, the next week, the quarter and the next quarter. In terms of categories, we should be the most abundant, satisfying the needs of users who can realize diversified investment strategies.
And there are still a lot of big players on OKEx, so we launched the option product this year, mainly to meet the needs of institutional users in investment strategies.
The third core product line is "tools". In the past, we separated the mining pool business, lending business and wallet business. After we sorted out the four core product lines this year, we put all the products related to tools. To a function. In this way, all users can use the tool in one stop when they use it. In the tool, they can meet the needs of various businesses such as user lending, staking, and computing power.
Staking is mentioned, and I would like to share with you here too. Last year, OKEx mining pools have grown a lot. In terms of staking business and computing power business, OKEx's growth this year should be ranked first in the exchange. Yes, we have integrated businesses such as staking mining pools into tool product lines, and we have also launched C2C lending business this year.
The fourth core product line is "Academy", and popular understanding is investor education. We believe that whether it is for the entire cryptocurrency industry or for OKEx, investor education is very important, and we have also invested a lot of energy in OKEx Academy this year.
We have categorized the college. We not only have a novice tutorial designed specifically for Xiaobai users, but also designed a trading strategy for old users. There are many large accounts on OKEx, and they will also contribute a lot of valuable trading experience and trading strategies for us. .
In addition to this, I want to emphasize a few key points. The first point is that OKEx is an exchange that values technology genes very much. OKEx values the hard-core trading system and the underlying technical maintenance. This is the main reason why I chose to join OKEx last year. We believe that the core of the exchange's competition is still the competition of products and technology. It is very important how the exchange can better serve users on the basis of good products. OKEx made about 800 technical upgrades in 2019.
The second point, we pay great attention to the security of user assets, so we have made very strong regulations on cold wallets and some storage tools.
The third point, we have done a lot of risk control mechanisms. Last year, we optimized some offline rules, including reasonable price index, gradient margin, and intelligent unwinding algorithm for liquidation. Under the same conditions, everyone It can be calculated that the price of our OKEx contract flattening is obviously later than the products of friends. This is also the experience and lessons that OKEx has accumulated over the years, and it has pushed us to do such optimization on the risk control rules.
The fourth point is the quality of the assets listed on the exchange, and our team has also strictly checked the assets. Only by selecting high-quality global assets can users be able to reach high-quality assets and realize profits.
The crypto asset market can be expected in the future
In terms of future trends and prospects, I mainly want to share two points with you.
First, whether it is the OKEx team or me personally, we are still firmly optimistic about the market of crypto assets and still have high confidence in this market. OKEx holds the following beliefs in the direction of industry development.
The first is specialization. We will professionally train our talents on the product, customer service, market, and operation levels, and then continue to introduce new professionals.
The second is standardization, and the entire market also needs to break upwards in terms of compliance. Many exchanges and major groups have layouts in this regard. For OKEx, our group also has some compliance layouts.
The third point is globalization. At the beginning, I also mentioned the word globalization. The encryption market naturally has globalization attributes, so only an international vision and an international team can support us to do international things. , The stronger the ability to resist risks.
In addition, many people are also very concerned about the price trend of the crypto market. When will the bull market come? Finally, we make a simple analysis of the future trend of the crypto market. Of course, this is a long-term judgment logic, not a short-term price prediction.
The first point is that this year the global financial market has encountered a liquidity crisis that has been rare for a hundred years because of the epidemic of the new crown virus. The black swan incidents have continued, the global financial market has declined, and the cryptocurrency market has not escaped the doom. However, the current size and volume of the entire crypto asset market is still very small, but it is a 7 * 24 hour uninterrupted transaction, so once liquidity comes in, there is still a lot of room for crypto assets to rise.
The second point is about "halving". I think that halving is just a stimulus on the news side. It takes a lot of curves to overlap to hit a central axis before it will stimulate the market, but from At this stage, I think that the bull market is more likely to come after the halving, because the crypto market also needs to digest the impact of the halving.
The third point, I think the global central bank's "water release" may bring some liquidity benefits to the entire crypto asset, especially after the United States began to implement zero interest rates this year. I personally think that in the future, the world will be in a state of low interest rate or even zero interest rate for a long time. Compared with other assets, Bitcoin should be an asset class with relatively investment value or speculative value in a relative cycle, so it is within the relative range. , I think crypto assets have a very large upside.
These are my recent reflections on the global trends in the crypto market, thank you all.
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