According to the vernacular annual practice, approaching the end of the year, it is time to write a year-end summary, and it is time to count "a few happy and sad" days.
This year's theme can be said to have nothing to do with the TPS, anonymity, privacy, platform currency, better BTC, better Ethereum, etc. of previous years. There are only two themes for this year:
One is BTC; the
other is Defi.
BTC is a feast for outsiders (organizations), and Defi is a carnival for insiders.
This is the first one. Let's take a look at what BTC has experienced in 2020.
01
BTC price and the 28 law
The price of BTC on January 1st at the beginning of the year was 7100 USD.
The lowest point this year was the unprecedented 312 massacre, which fell to 3,800 US dollars.
In other words, if your assets in the circle have not increased by three times from January 1 to now, or from 312 to now, they have not increased by 6 times, then unfortunately, you may become your number one The negative textbook that I heard in the Tianjin circle-in the circle, buying all kinds of altcoins, and the end of the operation is fierce, that is, there is a high probability that you will not win and hold BTC to play dead...
Is it piercing the old iron?
In fact, there is more heartbreaking.
In the past few months, BTC started to start after a long period of grinding around 10,000, and it has been rising all the way. Do you think everyone is making money? It's just a matter of earning more and earning less.
The truth is cruel. A sudden 2,000-point dive at the end of November directly caused the bulls to liquidate nearly $1 billion in 24 hours , almost no less than 312.
What's more interesting is that in the doubling of the market from 10,000 to 20,000 in the past three months, which one do you think is more long and short?
The answer is long, and far more than short .
As a big V said some time ago: have the confidence to break 20,000, but the bulls must die.
Many novices came in and asked stupidly, BTC has risen to one million US dollars. Isn’t everyone in our currency circle a millionaire or billionaire?
From the process of BTC rising from 10,000 to 20,000, we can clearly see that even if BTC rose to 1 million US dollars, it has nothing to do with most people in the circle. Because in fact, when most people in the circle lost money, BTC moved forward step by step ...
Outside the circle, the same is true:
You can disbelieve in any law in this circle, but you can’t disbelieve the law of 28.
02The
biggest pusher-institution
This year's increase of several times, there is no doubt that institutions are the biggest driving force.
Apart from other things, you can see it by looking at the most well-known Grayscale holdings. Grayscale is constantly buying, buying and buying.
Source: Non-small
The previous article once said that institutional investors accounted for more than 80% of the grayscale funds, followed by qualified investors, pension accounts and other groups. Grayscale did not earn money from rising currency prices. In other words, if he doesn't speculate himself, he earns a management fee . Therefore, the increasing holdings of Grayscale actually indicate that it is institutional investors and those who are wealthy (the threshold for qualified investors in the United States is "persons and assets with net worth of more than US$1 million or more than US$200,000 in income in the past two years. Institutional investors with more than $5 million") began to really like BTC and bought it aggressively.
In addition to the gray scale, all major investment institutions have also begun to "build positions". According to statistics from Bitcoin Treasuries, there are currently more than 16 listed companies on the market that hold BTC.
For example, there are several news from the past few days:
"Guggenheim Partners LLC recently stated that it may invest up to 10% of its $5.3 billion macro opportunity fund in a BTC trust fund";
"Insurance giant Massachusetts Mutual (Massachusetts Mutual) recently announced its $100 million investment in BTC (BTCUSD) in its ordinary investment account";
"Ruffer, a British listed company, began to reduce its gold holdings in November and allocated 675 million US dollars of BTC, accounting for 2.5% of its asset management scale, and called it a defensive investment";
……
You see, the coins mined by the miners are not enough for these institutions and funds to buy. When will the major pension institutions in various countries come up with a percentage, even 1%, 2% to allocate BTC as a "defense" "Sexual" investment, one can imagine what the BTC price will be like at that time.
03
Public Opinion-CCTV, Wall Street, financial KOL, entertainment KOL
In addition to the influx of institutional investors, public opinion has taken a 180-degree turn in its assessment of cryptocurrencies, especially BTC:
In our country, the attitude of CCTV is most obvious.
At that meeting in November 2017, a section of CCTV2 was called "When will the BTC madness end?"
In September of this year, the news of CCTV2 was a swipe in the circle.
On Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase, who had previously criticized BTC as the worst, issued the most severe criticism of BTC and the entire digital currency industry in 2017, calling it "a scam".
Now, JP Morgan Chase issued a JP Morgan Coin this year!
Needless to say, there are many BTC fans in the financial circle, and there are more and more BTC fans in it. No, this year's author of poor father and rich father Robert Kiyosaki tweeted: "The Fed printing fake dollars cannot save you. Buy gold, silver and BTC and save yourself".
Even more exaggerated, this trend spread directly to the entertainment industry. First , the author of "Harry Potter" JK Rowling posted on Twitter , asking netizens to explain to her "What is BTC?" Then "Game of Thrones" was well-known The female protagonist Erya directly asked on Twitter: Should I hold BTC. Both twitters have attracted countless reposts and replies inside and outside the circle.
This may be the first time in history that public opinion outside the circle finally has the same direction and atmosphere as in our circle.
04 The
big environment-USD release, Paypal
In addition to the halving of BTC this year, in addition to public opinion, in addition to institutions, there is also the power of the environment that cannot be ignored.
U.S. dollar release: Since March 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have put a total of 17.3 trillion U.S. dollars in base currency liquidity and economic stimulus programs into the market in just 33 weeks .
You know, in the 10 years from 2008 to 2018, the United States only printed 3.3 trillion yuan. This year, this year is the highest amount printed in the past few decades.
In this case, the price of almost all assets must rise, without being controlled by anyone. If you are more concerned about the economy, you will find that not only the BTC is rising, but the condiments ("Garlic you are cruel" "Jiang you army"" To Qian Cong" re-emergence), grain (such as corn futures), industrial-related raw materials and metals (such as copper, glass, thermal coal, electrolytic aluminum, iron ore...), these things you will find K-line trends, and Bitcoin is not much different. You must have felt it in your life. Many things are increasing in price, except for wages...
In addition to the large release of the US dollar, which pushed up all asset prices, Paypal and P-site (PornHub) also contributed to BTC's supernatural assistance.
Needless to say, Paypal is equivalent to directly opening the BTC purchase window to more than 300 million users worldwide . And compared to windows or channels, it is more important to give global retail investors a reassurance. No matter how it rose or fell before, BTC or the entire cryptocurrency industry was always regarded as an "alternative" or even a "scam" in the eyes of most people, but now it is different. Paypal can buy it directly! This impression and perception in the eyes of ordinary people who don't understand blockchain is completely different. Paypal endorses, at least the "scam" and "air" hats are completely removed.
05
What has BTC become
However, at the end of this BTC summary, I still want to remind you that you should know what you invest in.
The original design of BTC was a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. In Satoshi Nakamoto’s subsequent posts, BTC will also carry various possible transaction types through scripts in the future: escrow transactions, bonded contracts, third-party arbitration, multi-party signatures, etc. .
These have nothing to do with the current BTC. BTC currently has the main function, which is the store of value . The cash payment function and various types of smart contract transaction support supported by scripts have basically nothing to do with BTC. This is also the reason why BCH and BSV were forked later.
You can say that the Core development team and BlockStream deliberately did it, or you can say that this is the final result of free competition and free choice in the market. In any case, BTC is a store of value, and electronic gold has almost been deeply rooted in the consensus of everyone in the circle, and the outsiders must be exposed to this information when they enter the circle.
From a technical point of view, a hundred years later, after BTC is mined, there will be no block rewards anymore. If value storage alone cannot generate enough TX on the chain, how can BTC computing power and security be guaranteed? Is it necessary to switch to PoS like ETH?
No one knows the answer. But as an investor, perhaps you should understand that, as a BTC that was born only 10 years ago, the answer after 100 years is more important?
BTC has changed from electronic cash to electronic gold. Looking back on this route in the future, it may be correct or wrong. But there is a saying that the market is always right. Respect for the market and fear the market may be an axiom that each of our investors must keep in mind.
But, how do you look at BTC in 2020, there are so little Liangshan heroes, facing the government (Wall Street) recruiting security, have to be tragic... I wonder if you feel the same with me?
Do you think Bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars? Welcome to write down your opinion in the message area.
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"Disclaimer: This article is the author's independent point of view, and does not represent the vernacular blockchain position. This content is only for the popular science learning and exchanges of encryption enthusiasts, and does not constitute investment opinions or suggestions. Please treat it rationally, establish a correct concept, and increase risk awareness. The copyright of the article and the final interpretation right belong to the vernacular blockchain. 』
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