1. Engineering Risk and Risk Management
There are internal and external interference factors that cannot be pre-determined in the whole process of project establishment, analysis and implementation of engineering projects. Such interference factors are called engineering risks. Risks are random, such as: randomness of engineering project risks; risk activities The randomness of development and duration; the randomness of risk losses during the duration of risk activities, if not controlled, the impact of risks will expand, and even cause the entire project to be interrupted or scrapped. For example: Sun Plaza built by a company in Shenyang , Due to the insufficient estimation of the financing risk of the project, 28 million yuan was invested in the project. Due to the lack of funds of Party A (a company in Hong Kong), the project was forced to stop, and the production and operation of Party B was in trouble. Many engineering projects in my country, due to the risk The loss caused is shocking, especially in the field of international engineering contracting. Risk is often one of the main reasons for project failure. Therefore, in modern engineering project management, risk control has become one of the research hotspots.
In project management, risk management belongs to a high-level comprehensive management work. It is a set of methods to analyze and deal with various problems caused by uncertainty, including risk identification, risk estimation and risk control. .Risk management is a comprehensive marginal subject developed in the past 20 years. Most of the content of risk analysis is about technical risks, equipment quality risks and reliability engineering issues, while the technical methods for measurement and quantitative analysis of risk assessment are almost blank. Therefore, risk management is still an imperfect and immature discipline.
2. Identification and classification of engineering risk factors
Construction engineering projects are complex open systems. For a long time, the research on engineering risk has been using analysis methods and simulation methods. Due to the internal structure of the project, the dynamics of the project itself and the complexity of external disturbances, the structure and variables of the construction problem are complicated. When they are related to each other, neither the analysis method nor the simulation method can play the expected guiding role, and the influence relationship between the risk factors and the resulting consequences cannot be accurately represented. In order to facilitate risk analysis and risk prevention and treatment, the author classifies risks from the perspective of whether engineering risks can be measured, so as to determine which risks can be quantitatively analyzed, which can only be qualitatively analyzed, and which ones can be Qualitative and quantitative analysis can be combined to take corresponding countermeasures for the prevention of different risks.
The classification of engineering risks is mainly based on risk prevention and risk treatment, which is qualitative and relative. In terms of nature, measurable risks are technical risks and routine and inevitable risks, including geological foundation conditions, material supply, equipment supply, Risks caused by engineering changes, technical specifications, design and construction, etc.; non-measured risks are non-technical risks with low probability of occurrence, and are unconventional risks, including economic risks, political risks, force majeure risks, organizational coordination risks, etc.
The engineering contract contains a variety of variable factors that are difficult to define, and these factors can constitute the risk of the project. From the qualitative analysis, the contract risk is a non-technical risk, but the engineering contract contains a large number of technical terms. Risk analysis includes both quantitative and qualitative analysis.
3. Countermeasures to prevent engineering risks
3.1 Strengthen the risk management of contracts
The engineering contract is not only the legal document of project management, but also the main basis for the comprehensive risk management of the project. The project manager must have a strong risk awareness, learn to study each clause of the contract from the perspective of risk analysis and risk management, and have a good understanding of the risks that the project may encounter. have a comprehensive and profound understanding of the risk factors. Otherwise, the risk will bring huge losses to the project. For example, in the construction contract for a road in a certain African country in my country, because the strength index of paving gravel is ignored in the technical terms, the construction must not be carried out. If gravel is not imported, the cost of the project will be greatly increased, resulting in serious loss of the project. The contract is a definition of the risks that the parties to the contract should bear, and the risk allocation is usually defined in the contract and bidding documents. For example, in the FIDIC contract conditions, it is clearly stipulated that Risk allocation between the owner and the contractor. If the owner's qualifications are different from the FIDIC contract conditions, a comparative study should be carried out item by item to analyze why the owner should modify this item and whether there is an implied risk.
3.2 Turning risk into profit through engineering claims
Engineering claim is a kind of claim, the root cause of which is the change of contract conditions and external interference, which is the dynamic reflection of many changing factors affecting the implementation of the project. Without a claim, the contract cannot reflect its fairness, because a claim is a contract The main body's redefinition of engineering risks. Engineering claims run through the entire process of project implementation, focusing on the construction stage, involving a wide range of scope. For example, changes in engineering quantities, design errors, accelerated construction, changes in construction drawings, unfavorable natural conditions or non-Party B reasons Changes in construction conditions and delays caused by construction period, etc., all belong to the category of measurable risks. The terms of the FIDIC Red Book on engineering claims have been increased from 1 sub-clause in the third edition to 5 sub-clauses, forming an independent topic. my country "Construction Project Construction Contract Model Text" also makes corresponding clear provisions on engineering claims. These claim clauses can be used as the principle and legal basis for handling engineering claims. Although the solution to engineering claims is not unique, it can be measured. A successful claim in terms of contract terms or stacking clauses is not only a basic means to reduce engineering risks, but also reflects the level of project contract management.
3.3 Risk control in the form of contracts
According to the characteristics and reality of the project, the form of the price-based contract should be appropriately selected to reduce the contract risk of the project. For example, for small and medium-sized projects with stable hydrogeological conditions and similar construction experience by the contractor, the actual cost may not exceed the planned cost. If the risk is large, the amount of risk is small, and the strategy of self-retention and risk control can be adopted, and the quotation method of the total price contract can be used; The risk transfer strategy is to use the unit price contract quotation method to transfer all the risks of changes in the project quantity to Party A; for projects whose cost status cannot be estimated, rash evaluation will lead to great risks. transferred to the builder.
For contractors, being bad at construction period claims will inevitably lead to the risk of delays in construction periods; being bad at cost claims will inevitably lead to huge economic losses and even loss of money. Practice has proved that if they are good at construction claims, the amount of the claim is often greater than the profit in the bid price. Part. Therefore, it is very important to establish contract awareness, risk awareness and claim awareness, and pay attention to risk management to reduce engineering risks.
3.4 Prevention of non-measurement risks
Non-measured risks refer to political, economic and force majeure risks. Political risks include: wars, unrest, coups, changes in legal systems, etc.; economic risks include: foreign exchange risks, inflation, protectionism and tax discrimination, etc. These risks are included in international projects. Frequently encountered. Political risks are less likely to occur, but once they occur, they will lead to catastrophic consequences, which are often referred to as "fatal risks". For political risks, only qualitative analysis and prediction can be made. Contractors should Strengthen investigation and research. Economic risks are generally unavoidable, and qualitative and quantitative analysis and research should be carried out. For several mathematical methods of economic risk prediction, due to their low confidence, they should not be used as the basis for project decision-making.
Risks caused by force majeure mainly include earthquakes, storms, rain, snow and tsunamis exceeding the level specified in the contract, as well as special unforeseen geological conditions and debris flows, springs, quicksand, etc. According to the general contract conditions, such risks should be jointly Undertaking, the contractor generally can only get compensation for the delay in the construction period.
3.5 Non-measurement risk management and measures
In the project target design stage, the major risks affecting the project target are predicted, and the impact degree of each risk condition on the project target is studied, that is, the sensitivity analysis of the project is carried out.
Before bidding and quoting, analyze the political and economic situation of the country where the owner is located, the implementation of the project payment and the payment reputation of the owner; at the stage of compiling bids, familiarize yourself with the bidding documents, do a good job in on-site investigation, and consider risk factors in the unit price and total price ; At the stage of contract conclusion, put forward modification requirements for overly harsh contract terms to reduce contract risks.
In addition to insurance for engineering, equipment, personal accidents, etc., risk losses should be mitigated through insurance mechanisms; risks should be transferred to subcontractors through subcontracts; risk fees should be reasonably controlled.