[Miscellaneous talk] The state of the game between the national bond yield and the national psychological expectations of the country's prospects

foreword

The miscellaneous talk column is responsible for recording daily learning, including engineering development experience and thinking about economy and life in the general environment, and also records some interesting words and content.

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The following is the content of the text, which records the learning content of national debt and national debt yield.

concept

National debt definition

National debt (national debt; government loan), also known as national public debt, is a creditor-debt relationship formed by raising funds from the society based on the country's credit and in accordance with the general principles of debt. National debt is a bond issued by the state. It is a government bond issued by the central government to raise financial funds. It is a certificate of credit and debt issued by the central government to investors and promises to pay interest and repay the principal when it matures. Since the issuer of national debt is the state, it has the highest credit and is recognized as the safest investment tool.

At present, the minimum purchase amount of treasury bonds is 100 yuan, and if it exceeds 100 yuan, it will be incremented by integer multiples of 100 yuan.

Treasury yield

Assume that for every 100 face value of government bonds, the annual interest received is 5 .That is to say , when a bond with a face value of 100 matures, the country should repay the principal and interest at this price and pay a total of 105 , so the yield of the national bond at this time is5%

1. parity issueAssuming that the issuance price of national bonds with a face value of 100 is 100 at this time , the behavior of paying 100 to buy bonds with a face value of 100 at this time is called parity issuance.
2. Issued at a discountAssuming that the issue price of the national bond with a face value of 100 is 80 at this time , the behavior of paying 80 to buy a bond with a face value of 100 at this time is called a discount issuance.
3. premium issueAssuming that the issue price of national bonds with a face value of 100 is 120 at this time , the behavior of paying 120 to buy bonds with a face value of 100 at this time is called premium issuance.

Obtain the relevant historical data of the ten-year government bond yield on a certain website, and use MATLAB to draw its trend chart.
code show as below:

%%
clear
clc
close all
warning off

fileA = '中国十年期国债收益率历史数据.xlsx';
fileB = '美国十年期国债收益率历史数据.xlsx';

[A_data,A_text,A_alldata] = xlsread(fileA);%读所有数据
[B_data,B_text,B_alldata] = xlsread(fileB);%读所有数据

if size(B_data,1)>size(A_data,1)
    inter_AB = size(B_data,1)-size(A_data,1);
    B_data(end-inter_AB+1:end,:) = [];
end
A_text(1,:) = [];data = A_text;
 x = datenum(data);
y1 = A_data(:,1);
y2 = B_data(:,1);
figure('name','国债收益率历史数据')
hold on
title('国债收益率历史数据')
plot(x,y1,'r','LineWidth',1.0)
plot(x,y2,'b','LineWidth',1.0)
legend('中国','美国')
xlabel('日期'),ylabel('国债收益率（%）')
dateaxis('x',17); % 将坐标轴设置为日期格式
hold off
% gtext('国债收益率')
grid on
box on

Obtain the following chart:

Related resources:
MATLAB Plotting Ten-Year Treasury Bond Yields of Central and American Countries

game state

Good prospects for the country's development

If they are optimistic about the country's development prospects, or the country's development trend is good at that time, citizens will sell their bonds to obtain cash flow and invest in products or stocks that can obtain higher returns. At this time , the 100 par value of government bonds will be sold at a discount due to high supply and low demand, assuming that the selling price is 80 . Then the real rate of return at this time is $\boxed{\frac{5}{80}=6.25\%}$

Poor expectations for the country's development prospects

If you are pessimistic or pessimistic about the country's development prospects, or the country's development situation is poor at that time, citizens will sell low-yield product assets or stocks in their hands, and instead buy a large amount of bonds with higher returns relative to products and stocks. At this time, the 100 par value treasury bonds will be sold at a premium due to low supply and high demand, assuming that the selling price is 120 . Then the real rate of return at this time is $\boxed{\frac{5}{120}=4.16\%}$

Summarize

• When the economy is expected to be good, the yield on government bonds will decrease.
• When the economy is expected to be bad, the yield of government bonds will rise.

references

1. national debt
2. Investing.com