Yesterday, the stock indexes of the two cities fluctuated weakly during the session. At the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.55% to 3119.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61% to 10418.21 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.69% to 2102.57 points. The two cities had a total transaction volume of 828.2 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds were about 4.3 billion yuan. In terms of industries, the real estate and brokerage sectors were among the top decliners, while construction, media, and environmental protection all fell. The semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors bucked the trend and rose, with photoresist, diet pills, and chip concepts performing actively.
Guosheng Securities stated that the rapid rotation of the sector has affected the enthusiasm of funds to do long, and the slight rebound in PMI data is not enough to boost market confidence. The index has entered an adjustment period after a short-term rebound, but as good policies continue to be implemented, fee and tax reduction policies are continuously introduced. Next, the shrinking adjustment of the market will bring more opportunities. As the warm wind continues to be released, many forces are also quietly changing, paying attention to weights and opportunities for the financial sector to pick up.
Analysis of today’s investment opportunities:
Optimization and adjustment of differentiated residential credit policies
Yesterday, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing Differentiated Residential Credit Policies" and "Notice on Relevant Matters Reducing the Existing First-Home Loan Interest Rate" on August 31. The notice pointed out that for households that borrow money to purchase product housing, the minimum down payment share for commercial personal residential loans for the first home is uniformly no less than 20%, and the minimum down payment share for commercial personal residential loans for the second residential home is no less than 30%. %. The lower limit of the loan interest rate policy for commercial individual residences for the first residence shall be implemented in accordance with the current regulations, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial individual residences for the second residence shall be adjusted to no less than the loan market quote rate for the corresponding period plus 20 basis points.
In this regard, CITIC Securities pointed out that the optimization and adjustment of the differentiated residential credit policy is expected to form a synergy with the policy of not accepting loans in the early stage to help residents reduce the burden of home ownership and help accelerate the release of reasonable housing demand. This also shows that the policy is proactive and promising and is resolutely committed to preventing risks and stabilizing growth. The repricing of existing mortgage interest rates is expected to reduce residents' burden and release consumption capacity. We estimate that relevant policies can save more than 10 million middle-class families 12,000 yuan in capital costs every year.
The organization believes that under the boost of household registration reform, with the support of changes in the focus of regional development and changes in urban renewal ideas, the transformation of urban villages will be the core new variable on the supply side, and new citizens entering the city will be the core new variable on the demand side. Real estate development investment may have bottomed out and may rebound in the future. The real estate industry chain not only benefits from the stabilization of housing prices in the short term, but also benefits from the new wave of high-quality urban development in the medium and long term. We are optimistic about the investment value of the real estate industry chain and believe that the stabilization of real estate prices will help maintain a stable and positive macroeconomic trend.
The introduction of the new personal tax + mortgage loan policy is expected to boost consumer confidence
On August 31, the State Council issued the "Notice on Improving the Standards for Special Additional Deductions of Individual Income Tax", which improved the special additional deduction of individual income tax for infant care, children's education, and elderly care for the elderly; on the same day, the People's Bank of China and the State Financial Supervision The General Administration issued the "Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing the Policy of Differentiated Residential Credit" and "Notice on Relevant Matters Concerning Reducing the Interest Rate of Existing First Home Loans" to adjust and optimize the policy on residential credit.
CITIC Securities stated that the introduction of the new personal tax + mortgage loan policy will help reduce residents’ burdens and release spending power. At the same time, it will boost residents’ confidence to a certain extent and provide assistance for the recovery process of the consumer industry. At present, overall consumption is still in a weak recovery channel, and the market's concerns about the long-term trend of consumption have not been eliminated. However, as policies continue to be increased, expectations for consumption recovery will improve. However, the current consumption valuation has fallen back to a relatively low level, the value of allocation has emerged, and active allocation is advocated. In the short term, considering the systemic rebound driven by policy expectations and implementation, it is mainly recommended to invest in sectors with obvious procyclical characteristics such as liquor, home furnishings, and human resources; at the same time, it is mainly recommended to invest in sectors with valuations falling back to lows, but with clear long-term prospects. The leader in the track with time management advantage, clear room for valuation switching. In addition, we continue to recommend focusing on prosperous sectors in 2023, including gold and jewelry, catering supply chain, snack discounts, cross-border e-commerce, etc.
The first batch of large models were successfully registered and the implementation of AI+ application continues to be promoted.
On August 31, the large-scale models of the first batch of 8 manufacturers passed the "Interim Measures for Generative Artificial Intelligence Service Management" and were officially launched to provide services to the public. At the same time, 360 Smart Brain, Xunfei Xinghuo, and Ali Tongyi Qianwen will also Open to the outside world, more than ten large domestic models will continue to be registered through the "Interim Measures".
Zheshang Securities pointed out that it is expected that the formation of the AI application ecosystem will accelerate under the resonance of policy and demand. On the one hand, the regulatory guidelines for large models are constantly improving, and the time for full commercialization is gradually approaching. On the other hand, it is expected that domestic software manufacturers’ products for large-scale models will be released intensively in the second half of the year. We have seen that many listed companies have recently held AI product launches. Software companies have conducted in-depth exploration of the needs of government or corporate customers for large models and have begun preparations and plans. They are expected to enter the commercialization stage in the second half of the year. AI+ applications are expected to be implemented faster, and it is recommended to focus on AI+ office, AI+ education and AI+ government affairs. Continue to be optimistic about the increasing demand for computing power from large model training iterations: We are optimistic about the registered Baichuan large model computing power leasing service provider Fang Hongbo Co., Ltd., and advocate paying attention to Inspur Information and Sugon.
Other news affecting the market:
Adjustments to the specifications for three special additional deductions for personal income taxes
On August 31, the State Council issued a notice on improving the standards for special additional deductions related to personal income tax. In order to further reduce the family's burden of childbearing, childcare and care for the elderly, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Individual Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China", the State Council has decided to improve the three special additional deduction standards for individual income tax, including child care for infants and young children under 3 years old.
Among them, the special additional deduction standard for the care of infants under 3 years old has been increased from 1,000 yuan per month to 2,000 yuan per infant. The special additional deduction standard for children's education has been increased from 1,000 yuan per child per month to 2,000 yuan. The special additional deduction standard for caring for the elderly has been increased from 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan per month. Among them, the only child is deducted according to the standard quota of 3,000 yuan per month; the non-single child and siblings share the monthly deduction amount of 3,000 yuan, and the amount shared by each person cannot exceed 1,500 yuan per month.
Many places implement the "recognize the house but not the loan" policy
On August 31, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province issued a notice to optimize housing determination standards, clarifying that when residents borrow money to buy houses, if family members do not have a complete set of houses under the local name, regardless of whether they have already borrowed to buy houses, banking financial institutions will Follow the first home loan policy.
On the same day, Huizhou City issued a notice on optimizing the standards for determining the number of residential units in personal residential loans in the city. When a clear resident family (including the borrower, spouse and minor children) applies for a loan to purchase a product house, if the family member does not have a complete house in the local name, regardless of whether the loan has been used to buy a house, the banking financial organization will be based on the first house. Implement housing credit policies.
In addition, Xiamen, Fujian Province also plans to implement the policy of "recognizing the house but not the loan" for the first home. Recently, Xiamen released "Several Measures on Further Stabilizing Growth and Rotating Energy to Promote High-Quality Economic Development (Draft for Comment)." It was proposed to implement the policy of "recognizing the house without having to subscribe for the loan" for first-time home loans. When a household (including the borrower, spouse and minor children) applies for a loan to purchase a residential property, and the family member does not have a complete residential property in the local area, regardless of whether the loan has been used to purchase a residential property, the banking financial institution shall perform the loan as the first residential property. Residential Credit Policy.
Industry insiders believe that as the two first-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen implement the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" on the same day, sending positive signals to the market, it is expected that the policies of various regions will accelerate, especially the regulatory policies of Beijing and Shanghai. The policy will be stronger and the market will be significantly improved.
General Administration of Customs: Focus on supporting the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
On August 31, the General Administration of Customs held a regular press briefing. Liu Hong, deputy director of the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, stated at the briefing that in the next step, the Guangdong Branch and the provincial customs will continue to focus on supporting the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, actively promote the pilot reform of the "combined port" and "one port link", and carefully Do a good job in replicating and implementing reform and innovation experiences, continue to expand the scope of reform coverage, continue to improve the efficiency of regulatory services, further shorten the customs clearance time for goods, reduce import and export costs, and make more contributions to promoting the all-round interconnection of the port groups in the Greater Bay Area .
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national agricultural reclamation “two major initiatives” promotion meeting
From August 30 to 31, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national agricultural reclamation "two major activities" promotion meeting in Jiansanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, arranging large-area yield improvement activities for important crops such as agricultural reclamation and grain and oil, and the "agricultural reclamation socialized services + local" activities. The meeting called for further consolidating work responsibilities, establishing a work system with horizontal coordination and vertical penetration, and building a "two major actions" promotion format of "government coordination and coordination, functional department organization and guidance, agricultural reclamation and local joint implementation, and relevant departments joint participation" , strengthen scientific and technological support, deepen the reform of agricultural reclamation, innovate reclamation land cooperation and reclamation cooperation mechanisms, and work together to promote the implementation of the "two major actions".
New power system construction will upgrade innovation
On August 31, the Electric Power Planning and Design Institute released two reports, "China Energy Development Report 2023" and "China Electric Power Development Report 2023". When interpreting the report, many experts from the Electric Power Regulation Institute mentioned that the construction of new power systems will be upgraded and innovative. The installed capacity of new energy has increased on a large scale, but its safe and reliable replacement level needs to be improved urgently, and various forms need to be explored to enhance the level of reliable replacement.