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Last article, we described in detail cattle greatly securities industry index funds.
The latest concern: the securities industry for long-term investment it?
Today, cattle greatly friends explain the Davis Double-click the effects mentioned in this article.
01. Davis Double-click the (killing) effect
In order to allow everyone a better understanding of the Davis Double-click the effect, give you about a famous family of investment - Davis family.
Davis family is a very successful American family investment. * Newcastle will Cullom Davis started at $ 50,000 in 1947, led his sons, 45-year earn 18,000 times ($ 900 million), an annualized return of 23%. Davis is the first generation of the famous "Davis Double-click the (killing) effect" of the inventor.
You may have heard, "shares debt double play", that is, the stock market and the bond market fell at the same time.
What is the Davis Double-click the (killing) effect of it?
Davis Double-click the (killing) effect, is to double the number of related effects between market expectations and price volatility of listed companies. That is when a company makes profits continue to grow earnings per share increase, while giving market valuations improve, the share price has been multiplied by rising multiples, which is called the Davis Double-click on; the contrary, when a decline in performance of the company , earnings per share decreased or decline, given the market valuation also declined, falling stock prices get multiplied by multiples, which is called Davis double play.
We should all understand the concept of price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio is one of the indicators most commonly used to assess whether a reasonable price level.
PE follows: PE ratio stock PE = P / earnings of EPS. I.e. P = PE PE * stock earnings per share EPS.
Give you an example: a company now 10 yuan per share, price-earnings ratio of 10, earnings per share of 1 yuan. If the rate of return of 20% per year, then after three years, earnings per share of 1 * (1 + 20%) ^ 3 = 1.728. In the case of PE 10 also, the stock price-earnings ratio = EPS * = 1.728 * 10 = 17.28 yuan. This just click Davis. How to form a double-click on it?
As the company grew 20% per year, the market had high expectations of the company, so give a higher valuation, such as giving 15 times PE. Then the company's stock price-earnings ratio = 15 * 1.728 = 25.92 yuan per share, which resulted in the Davis Double-click effect.
Multiply several times the stock price rose on the formation of Davis double-click. If you take down several times, it is Davis double play.
比如，某个创业公司，原来被大家一致看好，被大家称为高成长股。财务报告称公司近期将会亏损，被揭开了“伪高成长”的面纱。由于亏损导致公司的每股盈利减少，同时市场对于公司前景不看好，因此会给予该公司比原来更低的估值（市盈率）。所以股价会出现乘数倍的下跌，形成了戴维斯双杀。
02. 基金如何实现双击效应？
牛大通过该效应，领悟到了投资指数基金赚钱的核心方法。咱们将之运用到投资基金上，就可以赚到多份收益。
大家还记得，上面说的公式：股价P=市盈率PE*每股盈利EPS。那么指数基金的净值应该怎么算呢？牛大也不卖关子了，公式如下：
指数基金净值 = 市盈率*盈利 + 分红
市盈率、盈利、分红三个因素中的任意一个因素的上涨，指数基金的净值都会增加，咱们的盈利就会增多。
1. 由于经济是持续增长的，所以指数基金对应的成分股的盈利也大都是长期增长的。因此投资指数基金，咱们赚到了第一份收益：盈利增长的收益。
2. 咱们定投低估的指数基金，后面一定会回归到正常估值，咱们赚到了第二份收益：估值回归的收益。
3. 当市场向好，即牛市来临时，市场就会给基金较高的估值。此时，戴维斯双击效应就到来了，咱们到高估时，就可以将手中积攒了许久的基金份额出售，就赚到了第三份收益：高估带来的收益。
4. 如果投资了分红比较多的指数基金，比如上期咱们介绍的：指数基金介绍专栏（6）：中证红利指数，就还可以赚到第四份收益：基金分红收益。
牛大与各位一起定投低估的指数基金，就是为了能获得更多份的基金收益。大家需要做的就是耐心等待，不急不躁，最终咱们都将能获得很高的收益。正如俗话所说：心急吃不了热豆腐。
相信牛大：一起坚持定投，咱们终将富有！