Economic side:
Figure 1, the euro zone CPI data
Eurozone CPI latest value of 1.4% on January 31 announced, indeed lower than the general standard 2% level, but compared to the 1.3% level in December of last year, still appear good prices, Li Duoou yuan. In fact, the euro zone CPI since October last year and since then has grown four consecutive appears, on behalf of the euro zone economy is in a moderate recovery of the virtuous cycle.
2, the euro area unemployment rate
Unemployment in the Eurozone is the latest published January 30 level of 7.4%, 5% higher than the general standard of full employment, but is 7.5% compared to the previous value, the labor market has emerged good improvement. If you stretch the euro zone unemployment rate data can be found in its highest value since 2013 near 12 percent decline year after year, until the current 7.4%, it can be said from a long period of view, it should look and not see the depreciation of the euro.
News:
Since February, Britain out of the EU, the follow-up will open a variety of separation procedures. UK economy itself is very strong, Britain leaving the EU is we already mentioned a lose-lose situation. Now the British referendum honor, not only to the depreciation of the pound sterling, the euro will also depreciate.
Pound United States and Europe from the current real exchange rate trend, the euro-than-expected depreciation of the pound while it appears certain margin of appreciation. The reason is that the three-year-old off the tug of war in Europe, the market is over-concerned about the changes in British politics and the economy, and less concerned about the impact on the euro zone economy take off in Europe. Therefore, the excessive depreciation of the pound had before the January 31 officially off Europe, is currently in a correction period; and when the market funds answered a God, the euro turned Budie trend.
On the other hand, just for the European Central Bank President, Lagarde has not been forceful measures to boost the economy, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the money market policy, this is some of the factors causing the depreciation of the euro.
Technical:
Figure 3, EURUSD daily chart
EURUSD current exchange rate is 1.0836, the highest month 1.1093, down 257 standard points, down 2.3%,
the euro against the dollar in February far the smoothest trend varieties, but in January can not make accurate forward-looking, because round down and no apparent warning, more is released market pessimism. Due to the current bears no significant supporting factor, so we expect the current decline can not last long, but the turning point not to judge when to appear. A check based on the theory, the moment after the end of a fractal form, support will be formed, when required to observe the health of the bottom of fractals, to determine whether the prospect of a significant late counterattack existence.
In addition, because the current is still short, so there are still many Ta traders want to play. Considering the entry point quite dominant, recommended clearance involved, the end of the fractal form then leave, not go on fighting.
Disclaimer:
1, the above analysis is provided by ATFX senior analyst Dean.
2, the above analysis only represents the analyst's views, foreign exchange risk, investors need to be cautious.
3, any profit and loss ATFX will not directly or indirectly use or reliance on this information which might lead responsible.
4, part of the disclosed information from the network
