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Author | Xi Shaohua
2022 is the year when the number of fixed-point lidars will explode. Several leading lidar companies have won the fixed-point projects of OEMs and gained a high degree of public recognition. It can be said that they are living under the "spotlight". Their general characteristics are high maturity of products and technologies, large overall staff size, and certain mass production capacity.
Compared with such leading companies, most small and medium lidar companies may still be in the product development stage, and their talent reserves, mass production capabilities, and brand exposure may not be as good as the former.
Furthermore, in addition to some start-up technology companies, some cross-field companies have also begun to enter the automotive lidar industry. They are characterized by the fact that their original main business is very mature, but their exposure is low. Therefore, they also belong to the " Beyond the Spotlight" lidar company.
In addition, this article mainly discusses LiDAR companies with ToF technology routes. The lidar products of the FMCW technology route are still in the research and development stage, and no manufacturer in the market has reached the stage of mass production, so FMCW is not within the scope of this article.
So, after some lidar companies have already emerged, does it mean that the automotive lidar market has matured? Has the competitive landscape of automotive lidar been "finalized"? The answer is: the market is not yet over.
During this period of time, the author contacted many experts from lidar companies, OEMs and autopilot solution providers responsible for lidar selection, and discussed with them the challenges and challenges faced by lidar companies "beyond the spotlight". opportunities, and future survival patterns.
1. Coexistence of challenges and opportunities
1.1
challenge
( 1) The differentiation of technical routes is difficult to achieve
To realize the differentiation of lidar technology routes, we must first understand where the core technical barriers of lidar are.
Jiang Bo, CEO of Ruichi Zhiguang, said: "Lidar can be divided into four modules: transmitting, receiving, scanning, and computing, and the differentiation of technology mainly depends on the two modules of transmitting and receiving."
Jiuzhang Zhijia also wrote in " What is the "engine technology" of lidar?" An article explaining the industry's technical barriers " mentioned in the article that the transceiver module dominates the performance of lidar, including ranging capability, accuracy, field of view, resolution, refresh frame rate, power consumption, volume, point cloud regularity, etc. The scanning module dominates the reliability of lidar, that is, whether it can pass the vehicle regulations.
On the whole, if small and medium lidar companies want to achieve differentiation in their technical routes, they need to improve the device performance of the transceiver module. However, at this stage, most lidar companies are mainly integrators, and the key electronic components (including lasers) and detectors) mainly from upstream suppliers.
A lidar product manager said: "At present, the performance of lidar products on the market will not be particularly differentiated, and there will not be any situation where the product performance is particularly good, or which product performance is particularly poor, because the core components Basically come from the hands of upstream suppliers, such as laser manufacturer Ams Osram, detector manufacturers Hamamatsu, Sony, Ansemi, etc. Upstream device suppliers may give priority to newly developed devices to head laser radar companies, And those small and medium lidar companies will receive less support from upstream suppliers, so the product iteration speed will be slower than that of leading companies.”
Therefore, if small and medium lidar companies want to break through a differentiated technical route, it will be more difficult.
( 2) The reliability of the product is not enough
The products of some small and medium lidar companies have problems of insufficient reliability. An engineer in charge of lidar model selection for an autonomous driving company said: "We have tested the products of a small and medium-sized lidar company, and the overall effect of its point cloud is poor."
The main reason for the product reliability problem is that small and medium lidar companies generally lack engineering capabilities.
Most small and medium lidar companies have just completed the 0 to 1 stage, and are not yet fully ready to shift from R&D to mass production, and there is a serious lack of engineering talents and experience. Moreover, even if they have understood the engineering problems that those head lidar companies have experienced, they still cannot be avoided in the actual landing process.
( 3) Insufficient mass production capacity
Today, leading lidar companies have released their own new production lines one after another. Whether it is a self-built production line or a third-party OEM model, their lidar products can basically achieve automated assembly and production. In contrast, most small and medium-sized lidar companies have the problem of insufficient mass production capacity.
Jiang Bo said: "The vast majority of small and medium lidar companies have not yet made it clear whether they want to build their own production lines or find a third-party OEM. At this stage, they really haven't reached the time to make a decision."
On the one hand, most small and medium-sized lidar companies have not yet obtained designated projects, and rushing to invest in the construction of production lines will increase the pressure on the company's operating cash flow. On the other hand, they are not ready for mass production, including engineering talent reserves.
An engineer in charge of lidar model selection for an autonomous driving company said: "In the early days, the lidar company had very limited staff, and the prototype products were all handmade by R&D personnel. A single product starts from receiving customer orders, and then goes to product assembly. After completion, various tests will be done to the algorithm engineer. If the product still has problems in the test, it will be sent back to the laboratory for adjustment, and so on until the final product lands. The whole process may take several months. But It is conceivable that a group of engineers may have a maximum production capacity of two or three units per year. If a customer needs 5-6 lidars for preliminary testing, and if the number of engineers of the lidar company is small, it may not be able to deliver in a year. "
( 4) Not attractive enough for R&D talents
Most of the R&D talents in the automotive lidar track are engineers from other traditional industries, such as optoelectronics, mechanical structure design, software development, etc. Therefore, the stock R&D talents in the entire industry are relatively scarce. This problem is especially serious for small and medium lidar companies.
First of all, in order to reduce the risks brought about by changing jobs, most R&D talents who come from across the industry will give priority to head laser radar companies.
An engineer who switched from other industries to the lidar track said: "When choosing a lidar company, job seekers must first have an understanding of the entire track and know which technical routes are the current mainstream development. On this basis , job seekers will choose a company with mature technical solutions and a certain sales volume.”
Secondly, the salary conditions of small and medium lidar companies may be lower than those of leading companies.
With the support of all the above factors, the career choice of R&D talents will be more inclined to top companies.
( 5) The organizational structure is not clear
Some leading lidar companies have dedicated personnel in charge of product sales, production technology, mechanical design, software development, product testing, etc.; in contrast, the team positioning of small and medium lidar companies is vague. R&D personnel sometimes need to undertake part of the after-sales work, such as cooperating with OEMs to do some testing and related technical support, and also need to solve problems in the production and manufacturing of OEMs.
The main problems caused by the unclear organizational structure are: first, the energy of R&D personnel will be dispersed to other irrelevant work, which may slow down the progress of the company's technology iteration; Under certain circumstances, some personnel may even need to complete market sales, and also need to cooperate with customers in certain technical tests and other after-sales work. This requires some interdisciplinary talents. While they have certain business capabilities, they also need Know some knowledge of product technology, and it is more difficult to recruit such talents.
1.2
opportunity
Although small and medium lidar companies face many challenges, they also face some opportunities.
1.2.1 The market penetration rate of lidar is low, and the overall market space still exists
At present, lidar is mainly installed on some high-end models or some models with high options, but this is still a small-scale market. In contrast, most of the current mid-to-low-end models are not equipped with lidar, and the potential of this market is very large.
Jiang Bo said: "All lidar technology routes will eventually become homogeneous, because lidar is actually a functional part, it is not an appearance part, and the final competitive factor of functional parts will return to cost. For example, airbag products 20 years ago, only BBA-level models were equipped with airbags, but now almost all models are equipped with airbags. Therefore, in the next stage, lidar will gradually penetrate into more than 200,000 models, or even more than 100,000 models model."
In other words, once the maturity of the product continues to increase and the cost continues to decrease, the technology of lidar will become homogeneous. At this time, although the head lidar company will win some fixed-point projects for low-end models, due to the large overall market, small and medium-sized lidar companies will also have the opportunity to win some fixed-point projects for low-end models.
1.2.2 Can grasp the problems encountered in the development of the top lidar company and counterattack
In the process of development, head lidar companies also encountered some problems, and these problems may become opportunities for small and medium lidar companies.
First, there may be certain variables in the fixed-point projects that the head laser radar company has won.
In the early days of lidar, the main criteria for OEMs to select lidar suppliers are product quality and delivery capabilities. At that time, there were not many reliable lidar suppliers, which led OEMs to only choose those manufacturers who already had certain project experience in unmanned low-speed scenarios or in the field of commercial vehicles when selecting suppliers.
With the development of the industry, the market structure will also change. On the one hand, while small and medium-sized lidar companies are gradually accumulating engineering capabilities, they will also polish the quality of their products. On the other hand, although the head lidar company has won many fixed-point projects, OEMs will also worry that they will not be able to deliver on time due to too many fixed-point projects.
In this context, OEMs may introduce a small and medium lidar company with high product reliability as an alternative supplier to ensure the safety of their own supply chain.
The marketing director of a small and medium-sized LiDAR company said: "Those fixed-point projects that are insufficiently supplied by friends are our opportunities."
Second, the head laser radar company will slow down the pace of setting a fixed point in the future.
The above-mentioned marketing director said: "The number of fixed-points of head lidar companies will not increase too much in the future, and may increase by about 5 a year. On the one hand, small and medium-sized lidar companies will gradually develop, and they will gradually participate in carve-up. market; on the other hand, the existing production capacity of head lidar companies may not be able to cover the existing fixed-point quantity, let alone take more fixed-point projects.”
2. What aspects should small and medium lidar companies pay attention to if they want to survive?
After talking about the challenges and opportunities faced by small and medium-sized lidar companies, this chapter will elaborate on what small and medium-sized lidar companies need to pay attention to.
2.1
Hematopoietic ability
If small and medium-sized lidar companies want to survive, the most important thing is to improve their hematopoietic ability. Only by surviving can they iterate their own technology and products.
Of course, short-term hematopoietic ability depends on financing. In the early stage, the R&D investment of automotive-grade lidar products is relatively high, and it is difficult for start-up technology companies to come up with these funds at once. Therefore, the solution to the R&D funding problem mainly depends on financing.
In terms of long-term hematopoietic capabilities, small and medium-sized lidar companies can achieve profitability by relying on stable industrial-grade lidar products, while increasing the gross profit margin of automotive-grade lidar products, and finally reach the profitability of automotive-grade lidar products.
On the one hand, most industrial-grade lidar customers are less sensitive to costs than car-grade lidars, so the gross profit margin of the product will be higher. On the other hand, industrial scenarios have lower requirements for lidar than automotive scenarios.
2.2
Choice of technical route
Judging from the existing lidar fixed-point projects, the mainstream lidar scanning solutions are mainly rotating mirrors and MEMS, such as Hesai AT128's "905nm+one-dimensional rotating mirror", Sagitar M1's "905nm+MEMS", Tuda Through Falson's "1550nm + two-dimensional rotating mirror" and so on.
Of course, even for the same scanning method, each company will have different optical path design.
A product manager of a lidar company said: "The optical path design of each product will be different, such as where the laser is placed, and which mirror the laser beam passes through, and from which direction it returns to the receiver."
So, can small and medium lidar companies choose a non-mainstream scanning route to gain a differentiated advantage? The answer is: no.
First, the innovation of the scanning method will not enhance the attractiveness of the product.
As mentioned above, the performance of lidar products mainly depends on lasers and detectors, and the differences in scanning modules cannot have a decisive impact on product performance. If the technical solution is just an innovation in scanning methods, OEMs or solution providers will not particularly care.
A system integration engineer of an autonomous driving company said: "The innovation of the scanning method is definitely not a real innovation. Customers do not need a product with a different scanning method, but a product with better performance and lower price."
Second, to develop a new technology route, the cost of R&D investment will be very high, and the R&D cycle will be very long, which is not conducive to competition with existing mature solutions.
A lidar marketing director said: "Those head lidar companies that focus on rotating mirrors and MEMS have achieved the ultimate in technology, and the cost of each link has been minimized."
In this environment, if small and medium lidar companies want to find another way in the technical route, it will be difficult to surpass the leading companies in terms of cost and product maturity.
Third, OEMs will give priority to products with mainstream technology routes, and will not take risks with products that adopt new technology routes.
A system integration engineer of an autonomous driving company said: "New technical solutions may increase the cost of algorithm migration. For example, a unique scanning path may require a unique tool chain and development tools, which will increase the difficulty of use."
All in all, in order to reduce development risk and market risk, small and medium lidar companies still need to give priority to mainstream solutions in the market when choosing a technical route.
2.3
R & D personnel
The lidar industry belongs to a new technological track. At present, various manufacturers are still in the stage of technology research and development, so the proportion of R&D personnel generally exceeds 50%.
So, from which channels can small and medium lidar companies obtain talents? And how to attract talents?
First of all, R&D talents mainly come from friends or cross-industry talents.
The product manager of a laser radar company said: "Many R&D personnel come from the head laser radar company, or come from other companies. There is a lot of personnel turnover between companies. There are two reasons: One is that they cannot stand the 'wolf culture' of these companies; the other is that the former owner's management system is not perfect, for example, the founders have to do everything in the company themselves, and they have not properly delegated authority."
In addition to talents from friends, a large part of talents come from across industries.
Jiang Bo said: "In the past, there were not many talents in the lidar track, and colleges and universities did not specifically set up careers related to lidar, so lidar companies will attract talents from other fields. A research and development personnel from the optoelectronic field, He may not be familiar with automotive lidar products. We will pass 3 to 6 months of on-production training, so that this type of people with basic knowledge background can be familiar with this industry in a short time. In other words, the company itself Make up for the gap in social talents and turn yourself into a social university.”
Secondly, in addition to material conditions such as salary and stock options, the size of the stage that R&D personnel can exercise and whether the strategic direction of the company is consistent with their ideas are also the key to attracting them.
On the one hand, the organizational structure of the head lidar company is relatively complete, and the responsibilities of R&D personnel will be subdivided into a small range, which limits the ability of R&D personnel to exercise themselves. In contrast, small and medium lidar companies can provide R&D personnel with a more free R&D environment, and also allow R&D personnel to deeply participate in a certain strategic cooperation project.
On the other hand, R&D personnel will pay attention to the company's technical direction and strategic development direction.
Jiang Bo said: "If they are grassroots engineers, they will care about the company's technological development route, and even care about the background of the company's strategic partners. If they are executive-level engineers, they will also pay attention to the ideas and ideas of the CXO, as well as the background of the CXO. style of doing things.”
2.4
production mode
Before mass production, small and medium lidar companies only need to complete the delivery of samples. This kind of work only needs to complete assembly, debugging and calibration in the laboratory. After winning the fixed-point project, they also need to consider how to achieve mass production, that is, choose a self-built production line or a third-party OEM model.
The advantage of self-built production line is that it can fully control the rhythm of production, and has absolute right to speak, which can ensure the batch consistency of production as much as possible. The disadvantage of this model is that the initial investment cost is very high, and it needs the support of sufficient funds and engineering talents.
The advantage of the third-party foundry model is that it can quickly establish its own mass production capacity. This is mainly because the foundries are large-scale enterprises and their engineering capabilities are relatively mature. However, the disadvantage of this model is that the laser Radar needs to maintain a high degree of cooperation with the foundry, including the pace of production, customer audits, etc.
Generally speaking, these two models have their own advantages and disadvantages, and when OEMs or autonomous driving solution providers choose lidar suppliers, they will not pay special attention to whether the supplier's production line is self-built or outsourced.
The product director of an autonomous driving company said: "If the supplier's production line is an OEM model, he only needs to have a clear agreement with the OEM, such as whether the qualification meets ISO9001, what is the sampling principle, and Production planning, etc. For another example, what control measures does the supplier have to remedy the quality problem of the product.”
Then, how to choose a production model for small and medium lidar companies will depend on the development stage of their products and the sales volume of their products.
Based on the opinions of various experts, the author sorts out the production models that small and medium-sized lidar companies may choose, which can be mainly divided into three stages.
△Picture: Selection of production modes in different periods
The first stage is the single product line period. The characteristics of this stage are that the product samples have just landed, and the company may have potential fixed-point projects, but the engineering capabilities and funds are insufficient. At this stage, there is a high probability that small and medium lidar companies will choose some qualified auto parts suppliers for OEM production.
The second stage is the period of rapid product iteration. This stage is characterized by rapid iteration of products and technologies. For example, the product line is derived from a single main lidar product to a multi-product matrix, or rapid changes in technology force production to be highly coordinated with R&D. rhythm.
The reasons for choosing the self-built production line at this stage are: first, the experience in the first stage has helped LiDAR company to accumulate certain engineering experience; second, the iteration speed of the product is very fast, in order to improve the production quality of the product, the manufacturer The right to speak on self-owned production lines will be higher; third, producing products by yourself can increase the gross profit margin of products.
The third stage is the mature period of the product matrix. This stage is characterized by the fact that the product line of the lidar company is basically finalized, and the probability of revolutionary innovation in technology is low. At this time, the automatic assembly of the product can be completely handed over to a third party, and the lidar company only needs to focus on the optical path design of the lidar product, the internal calibration and calibration of the device, and other work.
2.4
marketing strategy
At present, fixed-point projects are very valuable for both leading lidar companies and small and medium-sized companies, as long as customers come to them, they can do it. However, when potential customers choose lidar suppliers, they will still give priority to testing mainstream products, which forces small and medium lidar companies to formulate market strategies. For example, they need to consider which potential customers can be developed first, and which matters need to be strengthened in marketing strategies, etc.
In terms of customer development, small and medium lidar companies should give priority to avoiding the "heavy firepower area" of friends.
Although the head laser radar company may get many fixed-point projects, it will definitely give priority to car companies with more sales volume when allocating production capacity, such as Wei Xiaoli in the head, or some new energy vehicles under the traditional OEMs. Sub-brands (such as GAC Aian, SAIC Feifan, etc.) - these customers are characterized by high brand awareness, strong ability to accept new technologies, and high vehicle sales, which can not only increase the popularity of lidar companies, There can also be a scale effect.
For small and medium lidar companies, they must avoid the edge of friends. The marketing director of a lidar company said: "We mainly choose to connect with some customers whose suppliers are insufficient. And delivery times didn’t meet customer expectations, so that’s a good time for us to jump in.”
3. Conclusion
Since the development of the lidar track, some lidar companies have indeed taken the lead temporarily, but in the eyes of some small and medium machine lidar companies, these leading companies may not be able to reach the end. After all, many factors will affect the final outcome of a lidar company, such as business capabilities, operations management, product technical routes, and so on.
Jiang Bo said: "The current lidar track can only be said to have ended in the first stage. This stage is mainly to test the financing ability of lidar companies. If any company can quickly gather funds, it will be able to 'stake the horse and enclose the land' faster. '. Immediately afterwards, the second stage tested each company's technical strength, product quality and market response. The head lidar company may have achieved a leading edge in the first stage, but this does not mean that they can become the final winner. "
Therefore, each lidar company needs to maintain a state of competition at all times, and the end of the lidar track is far from being finalized.
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