本文为加纳恩克鲁玛科技大学（作者：COSMOS AGBE KWAME TODOKO）的硕士论文，共78页。
水被认为是所有生物特别是人类的生命线，因此水资源的可用性是通过人类发展指数（HDI）衡量人类福祉的关键组成部分。水资源在加纳的生产和分销，特别是在伏尔塔地区的霍霍埃市，是一个挑战。本研究旨在找出最适合霍霍埃市用水量数据的时间序列模型，并对霍霍埃市用水量进行预测。以时间序列模型为基础，该模型用于预测该市居民、机构和企业的用水水平。针对用水数据拟合了AR、MA、ARMA、ARIMA和SARIMA等时间序列模型，我们发现最合适的模型是ARIMA（2，1，2）。根据本文的研究预测，未来4年，全市水资源消费水平将不会有明显的上升，建议加纳水务有限公司在其经营和规划活动中使用本文研究模型及其预测数字。
Water is considered as lifeline of allliving things especially humans, hence its availability is a critical componentin the measurement of human wellbeing through the Human Development Index(HDI). Its production and distribution inGhanaparticularly in the Hohoe Municipality of the VoltaRegion is a challenge. This study seeks to identify the best fit time seriesmodel to the water consumption data in the Hohoe Municipalityand to forecast water consumption in the Municipality. This underpins thedevelopment of a time series model for forecasting water consumption levels ofthe residents, institutions and businesses in the municipality. Several timeseries models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data,and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA (2, 1, 2).There will be no astronomical increases in water consumption levels in themunicipality over the next 4 years. It is recommended that the Ghana WaterCompany Limited should use the model and its forecasted figures in itsoperational and planning activities.
1 引言
2 历史文献回顾
3 研究方法
4 数据采集、分析与结果
5 结论与建议
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